trump asked about plans for premature win

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skeptoid's picture

Both sides wondering that about the other side. Nothing here on plans for a premature election win other than mention of lawyers. Ah, dictators and their lawyers.

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daftcunt's picture
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I doubt he understands how it works. If it works as he describes he actually would be correct.

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ubershin's picture

lol so if my work has a deadline to turn in a ballot, the teacher is required to wait 1 month for me? I say put it in on time or get fucked. It's the real world but unfortuantely demonrats dont live in the real world they just care about their furries and derange trump hate obv

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sal9000's picture
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if you hand in the work before the deadline but the teacher doesn't grade it by 5pm on november 3rd. should you get a failing mark, as if you didnt hand it in at all?

 

"Hopefully, the few states remaining that want to take a lot of time after November 3rd to count ballots, that won't be allowed by the various courts". he's talking counting ballots they already have. not waiting for more ballots to show up to be counted.

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skeptoid's picture

He make shis comment at 1:30 in the clip above - seems clear he's talking about more ballots coming in after the election is over. In the past, it has always taken time to count those that have come in up until election but with the exception of 2000 it's always been easy to call. 

 

I could tell my professor that someone will deliver my work to you at some point after the deadline and you'll just have to accept it, accept that it's my work and not someone else's or a forgery and not disqualify it because it was received post-deadline. You're cool with that, right?

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sal9000's picture
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more of trumps words. "The Election should end on November 3rd., not weeks later" so, unless your professor grades it on the day, or you don't get a grade. you cool with that?

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skeptoid's picture

What do you think Trump means by those words? Open to interpretation, as are the words of the PA gov who just said that with all the votes counted Trump will, in no way, win PA. This is being interpreted by conservative critics as saying that Biden will be declared winner regardless of the count. Is that your interpretation? Biden just said that under no circumstances will Trump be declared victorious tomorrow - really? Under no circumstances? What's your interpretation of that statement?

 

I can interpret Trump's words that the election should end of November 3rd, as "No votes received after Election 3rd should be counted." My interpretation is backed by all of history in that, typically, a winner is declared on election night when the results aren't close enough to warrant waiting for a complete count. You're saying Trump means that all ballot counting must end at midnight on Nov. 4th regardless of who is ahead in the count - what makes you think he means that? 

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sal9000's picture
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most elections are not close, in the last 100 years. only 2 or 3 were close, 1 was so close they needed a complete count/recount which was blocked by the supreme court.

 

just ballot talk

comparing today to 120 years ago, there 220 million more people that can vote.

2016 election had 26 million mail in ballots, this time they say close to 65+ million because of the pandemic. no other election in history gets close to that number. now, remember that they removed post office boxes and disassembled mail sorting machines during the months leading up to the election(with no intention of replacing the machines until after the election). the guy responsible, got a shout out from the president. meanwhile that same president is spreading conspiracy theories that voter fraud is a huge problem when it accounts for less than 0.01%. don't think history has any comparisons to whats happened during an election.

 

so yea., i get trump just saying something and you can take it any way you want. i'm just pointing out where the chess pieces are. you can't take something off the board without having a piece in position first

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skeptoid's picture

You're saying things have changed - this time more people than ever will vote, there's also mail-in ballots in addition to the absentee, COVID in general, etc., etc. - but then you apply a stat like voter fraud accounts for less than 0.01% which comes from the before times. You can't do that - you don't know what percentage of the vote will be fraudulent given the vastly new situation, which includes unpredented polarization. Trump says he thinks it will be "massive". I think there are enough indicators to say it will be significantly more than 0.01% but I don't know how much more. 

 

Also, there's some indication that mail-in ballots received after election day could actually favor Trump - they could be hurting themselves with their demand.

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sal9000's picture
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i was playing it safe with 0.01% cause its way lower. between 0.00004% and 0.0009%

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/09/24/fbi-director-says-no-evidence-of-national-voter-fraud-effort-undercutting-trump/?sh=317e22554974

the percentage is based off the amount of mail in ballots which have to be requested. so they know how many requests were put out. if you multiply the known voter fraud rate by a thousand fold, you get 0.9%. of the 65 mil requests, thats under 600k votes.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/oct/26/wisconsin-mail-in-ballots-supreme-court-election-day

an article about the supreme court not allowing extention to count ballots.

 

it doesn't matter who the votes are for. they should still be counted. obviously you got to have some rules, like, if it takes 3 days to mail something and the post office gets the ballot 3 days before the election, it should be counted, even if it takes two weeks to make due to delays because of republican politicians purposefully dismantling the post office during the months leading up to the election.

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skeptoid's picture

"it doesn't matter who the votes are for. they should still be counted. obviously you got to have some rules, like, if it takes 3 days to mail something and the post office gets the ballot 3 days before the election, it should be counted, even if it takes two weeks to make due to delays because of republican politicians purposefully dismantling the post office during the months leading up to the election."

 

I'm going to use what you believe to make my point. Many, many folks believe that republican politicians purposefully dismantled the poste office during the months leading up to election. Whether that's true or not is out of scope for the point I'm making. Millions of folks actually believe Trump is a cheating foreign asset who stole the 2016 election at the direction of Vladimir Putin.

 

Millions believe Trump is an extreme right wing white supremacist (as opposed to the extreme leftwing variety) whose followers are Nazi-sympathizing domestic terrorists. All of the calculations in your first paragraph are completely invalid because they do not account for this new reality. When people believe the other side is cheating, and the stakes are THIS HIGH, it's easy to justify your own brand of cheating, and common sense and human psychology both tell me that an enormous and novel incentive is motivating a surge in voter fraud the likes of which the US Election has never seen before. It's got to be happening on both side, since the Trump side has it's own terrfying narrative. But I don't really know - it's just my impression based on how folks are perceiving reality at this time. I just know enough not to apply what are very rational calculations to a new situation where the last thing folks are being is rational. 

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Raining Blood's picture

so because millions of people think trump is an extreme right wing white supremacist.... voter fraud statistics are invalid? that seems like a loooong stretch.

 

sal hasn't mentioned it but. most of those polls from helmut that put trump at 91% chance of winning, are based on the primary model, which doesnt take into account any voting(not the mail in ballots or people voting in person). it simply compares the results of primary elections for leader of the party. having good candidates that split the vote, according to the formula, weakens the chances of winning the pres. election. so biden only taking 51% of the vote, sanders and warren taking 31%(and a few other straglers) made it unlikely that biden and the democrates would win against trumps 99%. now. that primary model doesnt take the economy, the pandemic or any scandels into consideration. so techncally, once trump won the republican nomination in august, he could have said he was going to reconstitute slavery and put black people in chains and that primary model would still have him as winning by 91%.

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skeptoid's picture

"so because millions of people think trump is an extreme right wing white supremacist.... voter fraud statistics are invalid? that seems like a loooong stretch."

 

Yes - if you knew you were up against Hitler what would you be willing to do, Blood? You don't believe this effect is real?

 

And as for Helmut, he's just a guy out there with his own prediction. I really like the emerging argument that polls that ask people who they think their friends are voting for are much better indicators than polls that ask the person directy who they are voting for. Won't know until tonight if that holds water - tonight is a huge "die into the petri dish" kind of night for me. I have butterflies.

 

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Raining Blood's picture

still doesnt make sense, like, what form of voting should be discared because millions of people think

biden is a communist? should any be simply because a minority believe nonsense?

 

glenn describes the left going fox news. i see it, think someone else said it, but there no money in the left, either you make noise or you go right wing

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skeptoid's picture

I'm talking about the effect of what they're doing - how it warps peope's minds. I haven't heard anyone say Biden is a communist - Bernie maybe, and it's something Biden might say about Bernie as well. The most extreme fear narrative on the Trump side is the Qanon globalist satanist pedophile and child sacrifice ring - LOL that's their opponent. If you thought you were up against a globalist satanist pedophile child sacrifice ring possibly controlled by reptilian aliens, what would you be willing to do, Blood?

 

I need to get drunk tonight.

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Raining Blood's picture

take a step back and realize i'm not living in a fantasy, most people who think like that are on the outside of the center.

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skeptoid's picture

It's not you any of us need to worry about in terms of voter fraud. Here's the thing - based on everything I'm seeing, I don't think the choice between these two represents the most impactful choice in US election history. In fact, standing here on election day looking at the landscape, I think it's the opposite - what's now been set in motion will not have its course altered by either one of these two winning tonight. I think something large and reality-altering is going to happen regardless - that's my concern. I think we're there, and tonight and in the coming days I will be mainly watching for indications that show whether my hypothesis is accurate or alarmist.

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sal9000's picture
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its either a landslide or its close and its contested. i would say it would be like any other election, but no other election had the white house build an unscallable wall around it. if its contested, news cycles will have a pay day for a while. nobody else is going to do anything. might get a few more shootings in teh next few days. but relatively normal.

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trooper_trent's picture

it's called a fucking postmark.

I can't believe this even has to be said, but the guy who wins, is the guy who's ahead when all the votes received in time are counted.  What the fuck planet am I on?

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daftcunt's picture
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Isn't it amazing how 3rd world the american voting system seems to be?

 

He had 4 years to sort this out, maybe if this is so important he should have spent more effort on this, rather than watching fox and oan or playing golf,  then there would be no problem now. It is not rocket (or climate) science after all.

 

In any case all this is designed and a preparation for later questioning the results should he lose.

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Pdub's picture

The election is decided by the electoral votes, not the popular vote.  I had a mail-in envelope, but realized that if it wasn't counted by tomorrow, there is a good possibility that it would be null and void if it received and counted after November 3rd, as most candidates concede by the end of the night.  So, what's the point if you didn't mail it weeks ago?  I walked in and voted in person.  They had a touch screen technology with a printer that eats your ballot.  Done.  Trump won.

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