PINCH OF SALT WARNING!
Video is a week old, they are at more than 2k deaths now. So, did they do well? And if so why. Let's have a look at the figures by country as of today (source):
Spain:
POPULATION 47m
POPULATIONDENSITY 93.5 / sqkm
total confirmed cases 236900
total deaths 24275
cases per million 5040
deaths per million 516
current daily infection rate trending: decline - possible steep decline
Reaction time following 500 infected: extremely slow Measures: very strict
UK:
POPULATION 66.7m
POPULATIONDENSITY 273 / sqkm
total confirmed cases 166441
total deaths 26166
cases per million 2495
deaths per million 392
current daily infection rate trending: plateau - possible slight decline Reaction time following 500 infected: very slow Measures: strict
US:
POPULATION 328m
POPULATIONDENSITY 35.8 / sqkm
total confirmed cases 1040500
total deaths 61000
cases per million 3172
deaths per million 186
current daily infection rate trending: slight increase - possible plateau
Reaction time following 500 infected: very slow Measures: strict
Sweden:
POPULATION 10.2m
POPULATIONDENSITY 25 / sqkm /
total confirmed cases 20302
total deaths 2462
cases per million 1990
deaths per million 241
current daily infection rate trending: slight increase - possible plateau Reaction time following 500 infected: slow
Measures: lax Germany:
POPULATION 83m
POPULATIONDENSITY 232 / sqkm
total confirmed cases 161539
total deaths 6467
cases per million 1946
deaths per million 78
current daily infection rate trending: decline Reaction time following 500 infected: very quick Measures: strict
Norway:
POPULATION 5.4m
POPULATIONDENSITY 14.6 / sqkm
total confirmed cases 7710
total deaths 1428
cases per million 207
deaths per million 38
current daily infection rate trending: steep decline Reaction time following 500 infected: very quick Measures: strict
Australia:
POPULATION 25m
POPULATIONDENSITY 3.3 / sqkm /
total confirmed cases 6752
total deaths 913.64
cases per million 270
deaths per million 3.64
current daily infection rate trending: steep decline Reaction time following 500 infected: very quick
Measures: strict
My thoughts:
Looking at the deaths per million Sweden is NOT doing great at all! In comparison to neighbour Norway for example they are way higher and the two countries are on 2 different stages of the infection, so Swedens numbers are still increasing heavily. Both countries have a very good national health service. Population density plays a role of course. The US will almost certainly correct their total corona numbers and especially deaths severely upwards (like the UK, Spain and others already did) during the effort to standardise reporting. Region plays a role too due to the reduced half life of the virus in high temperatures. Arguably in "the more of a dump" people live in the more natural resistance they will have and are more likely to have a higher survival rate.
Due to the last two points probably India is doing surprisingly well.
Spain and Italy were hit very early and acted very slowly so they were hit hardest, however, so early on in the process nobody really took this very seriously. Also in these cultures it is more common for various generations living under one roof so a lot of older people had a higher exposure rate than in other countries. It is also likely that relatives in old people's homes receive more visits. Germany did a surprisingly good job but they have one of the best national health services and general inhabitant obedience is good so they got away with closing bars, restaurants and a few other services. The worst job in reacting and taking appropriate measures was done by the US, UK and Sweden.
Comments
(Old Spike)
Afterthought Denmark:
POPULATION 5.8m
POPULATIONDENSITY 138/ sqkm
total confirmed cases 9356
total deaths 443
cases per million 1613
deaths per million 76
current daily infection rate trending: steep decline
Reaction time following 500 infected: very quick
Measures: strict
(Old Spike)
Your methodology is flawed - you have to take into account Sweden's goal, which is reflected in their approach. You haven't done that, and you would not be able to make a determination of the actual outcome for several months given this reality. You've made some predictions above - let's see how they pan out.
If Sweden succeeds, when they are finished they will be the ones closing their borders to protect themselves from other countries that thought they would mitigate this by beating the shit out of their most vulnerable, puttering along with the crisis well after Sweden has moved on, and destroying their societies in the process.
Time will tell - with each passing day the data indicates that a colossal error has been made here. Which, again, should NOT surprise anyone. It tracks. We'll see if the data turns, free of shenanigans, and if it does I will re-evaluate.
(Old Spike)
I did not. Their goal is herd immunity, same approach the UK tried and gave up on. It is just a gamble as there is no guarantee that this will work.
In fact, should the virus be anything like flu in this respect it most definitely won't.
(Old Spike)
Well, Sweden is often too cool for school. We'll see how she does. Can we say, now, that any of the approaches taken aren't gambling in one way or another? Months from now we'll have enough insight to consider the word guarantee.
(Old Spike)
I would not call all approaches gambling. In sweden possibly taking the calculated risk made more sense than in other cuntries, as long as you don't care about people dying, not only from the virus itself but also from backlash throughout the health system. This is why this is unworkable in a place with high population density, like NY, Madrid etc....
Deaths in sweden have gone up by 130 in the meantime. You should be glad your government protects you as you probably would be one of the severe cases.
(Dixie Normous: Image specialist)
So why isn't Sweden at the top of the list? They even have a big immigrant population that should contribute to the problem. As far as I know, they didn't close off their borders.
(Old Spike)
Why would an "immigrant population" change a lot for them? Germany has a large immigrant population and is not top. If everyone else closes their borders they don't need to.
There is a relation to population density that should not be under estimated, this is why I included it in the listings, but of course this is all part of a whole huge list of issues we probably never will be able to fully explore. The question we should ask is why is norway or denmark are so much better....
Also if sweden's cases per day are not yet declining they very well may become "leader", although I doubt it.
(Dixie Normous: Image specialist)
Be that as it may, a disproportionate number of Swedens immigrants have the virus. Maybe they got it before the lock downs were in place?
(Old Spike)
How did you come to this conclusion? "a disproportionate number of Swedens immigrants have the virus"
(Dixie Normous: Image specialist)
I didn't come to that conclusion, I read it from a few articles and think it was on wiki too.
My conclusion was that since the middle east is one hotspot and Swedens immigrants mostly come from there, it could possibly make the situation worse.
(Old Spike)
Can you provide a source?
(Dixie Normous: Image specialist)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden
(Old Spike)
It only says that a fewe thousand sweish citizens were in Iran, that is probably true for many other countries.
(Dixie Normous: Image specialist)
This what I was pointing to, but yeah it just might be that immigrants tend to haul their entire family under one roof and therefore spreads more among them.
At a point, it was reported that a disproportionate number of those that had died by then were Somali (6)[180] out of 89[181] deaths being members of the Somali community in the Stockholm Region
(Old Spike)
Some things to consider:
That is not how statistics should be interpreted in the pursuit of success in any goal. It is equivalent to bashing a gadget against a wall in order to fix it, because it seemed to work the last time, with a completely different gadget.