242 deaths and 14000 new cases today

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danmanjones's picture

they've gone door-to-door diagnosing people, hence the jump

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sal9000's picture
Master Mind

it's got to be a rough day when they diagnose you as dead

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danmanjones's picture

You go to a doctor to check if you're dead in America?

No wonder your health care is so expensive.

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sal9000's picture
Master Mind

health care would be expensive, if i was an american

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danmanjones's picture

so what country are you from? do you dare to say?

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sal9000's picture
Master Mind

i'm canadian, doesn't really tell you my ethnicity though, could be like mr wu from a few weeks ago, he's canadian.

 

canadian

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danmanjones's picture

Your ethnicity doesn't matter to me but what you just said makes me curious. It's doubtful you're like Mr. Wu unless you're of Taiwanese stock.

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danmanjones's picture

they've also expanded the definition of what they call 'confirmed case'. I don't quite get it but here's the new official figures:

source

 

99.9% of deaths are inside China, 100% of deaths inside Asia

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danmanjones's picture

So it turns out they're now counting all who've been clinically diagnosed (patients who have symptoms eg. fever, cough), incl CT scan but not tested positive for the virus with blood samples.

 

Link to official statement on new counting mechanism from Hubei govt:

https://twitter.com/goldencaskcap/status/1227745151851741184?s=21

 

The new counting mechanism is more realistic. It's beyond what the US CDC did during the H1N1 outbreak.

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GKhan's picture

I don't understand why they calculate the death rate over the infected group and say the death rate is 2.6% then compare this rate to death rate based on final outcomes of other viruses.

 

If we look at outcomes we get 1368deaths/(5988cured+1368deaths)=20%.

 

Ah, upon some further reading it appears it is improper to compare but this is how China is reporting deaths so people are comparing incorrectly.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

 

It's actually a good read on different ways to evaluate in the moment and how the different groups are doing it. The most ideal is to include time. And if you can get it, is to use time from hospitilization.

 

It's also interesting as SARS death rate using population was 3-4% during the outrbeak and 10% at the end.

 

But the reason for all the caution and aggressive action is that it is too early to make conclusive statements.

 

I wonder if we will start to develop some global measurements and rules on dealing with these new outbreaks.

I believe we have some models but they need to incorporate the lack of data in the early days. I expect given enough people+density and the level of transmissabilty there are some ranges that would become narrower and narrower as time goes on due to better identification and recording.

 

Arguably we may not have a good idea of how transmissionable Coronvirus is due to the massive institutional and self lockdown as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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danmanjones's picture

That table of figures is something I made. I agree the fatality rate isn't very accurate. It takes on average 12.5 days to die so there's a lag involved. The point of the table was to show the difference between stats inside Hubei & outside it, they're wildly different. It was also mappig the difference every few days but they've now changed the underlying reporting mechanism so it's been reset.

 

The longer it goes the more accurate the death rate gets but we can assume, based on the current death rate, number of infected & number of new cases per day how many total will perish, short of a new outbreak in another region. My current guesstimate is 100-200k infected & 3000-5000 dead, mostly in Hubei. 80% of the deaths are old people with a history of related health problems apparently. The recovery rate is also climbing & new cases discovered was dropping for a week before this new reporting mechanism was introduced.

 

Global measures are always improving. WHO only started managing things about 12 years ago & the cmmunication/cooperation channels are just getting better. I think more drastic changes will come within China. After SARS they improved response mechanisms in the provinces most hard hit - Guangong & Beijing I think - but Hubei wasn't really affected so is still kinda primitive. The concensus in China seems to be that the Hubei/Wuhan officials really messed up. Top officials have been replaced & they're still sending in more medical teams. The situation there is really dire.

 

The transmissibility is really high. It can incubate for up to 24 days & is transmissible the whole time. It can survive for days on surfaces & is contageous within 1-2 metres of an infected person. Last I heard at least 3 cities in Hubei are still ordered to stay home, showing it's still not really under control.

 

A final thing worth noting - the hospitals are likely still overwhelmed which causes additional deaths of people with unrelated illnesses without access to health care etc, so the real impact of this is worse than what's reported.

 

Oh, and something I just read - blood transfusions from recovered patients has shown to be effective - the antibodies in the blood help fight the virus.

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GKhan's picture

Nice investigation there. I still think it's missleading to display fatality as deaths over population during the outbreak. Your current estimate of 1.5%-5% fatalities assumes we get a lot better at treatments vs 20% with no change in treatability but if all going as you are saying then there is a lot of hope. 

 

But man, this thing sounds like a beast.

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danmanjones's picture

yeah it's a pain in the ass....up to 24 day incubation period plus around 7 days before getting really sick means even those hospitalised can be contageous for a month before being isolated. Then there's people who don't show symptoms. There is a lot of hope outside Hubei if people are diligent but inside Hubei it's still pretty chaotic. Hubei Province has ~60 million people & is the biggest transport hub in the country, right in the middle.

 

Chinese hospitals are hard places to work at the best of times, my friend was a nurse there & left because it was too hard (and she's a hard worker, works 6 days a week here without issue). They have 30+ patients each compared to around 15 in a typical Western hospital. Add on top the 'above & beyond' duties right now & you start getting an idea of how hard they're fighting this thing. They've sent about 10,000 additional medical staff into Hubei so far & more are still arriving.

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GKhan's picture

OMG, that's intense a month of waiting. And 10K more!

 

I can't even register what this means? In my local hospital, there may be 2 late night ER doctors working.

 

I just read another article about the huge percentage of medical staff now infected. Of course, they had no idea in the beginning.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/13/asia/coronavirus-health-care-workers-infected-intl-hnk/index.html

 

 

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Dude's picture

My prognosis of 25 to 30.000 deats at the end of this year may be wrong i am changing it to atleast 60.000 or 80 or 120

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Needless_Kane's picture

Whelp Not going to the chinese buffet anytime soon.

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GKhan's picture

Dude, loved them as a kid but now as an old man, they are way to heavy.

Dim Sum on the otherhand...and much more sanitary.

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danmanjones's picture

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Dude's picture

I can make this in MS paint :) just kidding... it seems to go down

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danmanjones's picture

Source for that graph is here if you wanna check it out.

 

Yeah I think for 10 or 12 days the number of new confirmed cases per day outside Hubei has gone down. The situation seems tentatively stable outside Hubei.

 

It's still really bad in Hubei though, Wuhan especially. Medical facilities are still overwhelmed in Hubei & diagnosing all possible carriers is still incomplete as far as I can tell. Over 1700 medical staff have contracted it so far.

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sal9000's picture
Master Mind

pres xi jinping said he knew about the virus as of jan 7 and was giving out orders. that's 2 weeks before locking down the city and a week before the first "confirmed" case.

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danmanjones's picture

China CDC activated a Level 2 health emergency on the January 6. It's the kind of thing a president would have to know in order to deal with it.

 

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