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merlock's picture

No

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danmanjones's picture

 

- [source]

 

 

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Raining Blood's picture

over 20,000 have been confirmed and 427 people have died while your graph only lists 8k cases and 20 people dead. you should spruce it up with some glitter, if its not true you could alteast make it look good

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danmanjones's picture

The graph is from January 30. Deaths are still in the hundreds compared to over 200k so the message is the same. Besides, I lost my glitter :(

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Raining Blood's picture

so do the math. as of jan 30th, 20 people died. 5 days later its 427. so 407 people died in 5 days. thats 81 people a day. which virus do you want to compare that to? the 2009 virus only around 2500-6000 people die during april to october. so thats at most 11-28 people a day.

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danmanjones's picture

there are a bunch of factors...

- death rate (17% v 2%)

- spread rate (inflection point of coronavirus should come within a week/month)

- vaccine development

 

I'm keen to see your source on the 2009 spread. Can you link it?

 

This is besides the point I was making about the media... it's been going nuts on this coronavirus since Jan 20. The WSJ article titled "Swine Flu Isn't So Scary" is from May 2009, about a week after US declared public health emergency & WHO was warning other countries about it being a pandemic.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-pandemic-timeline.html

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Raining Blood's picture

just google how many people died from h1n1 from april to october of 2009.

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danmanjones's picture

Those figures are only for the United States.


 

It has substantial under-reporting too (kinda expected but still)...

 

CDC says ~3.9k deaths, ~98k hospitalisations & ~22m cases.

 

This doesn't align with the Business Insider graphic because if we divide the deaths by the hospitalisations the fatality rate is only 6.2%. Divide deaths by cases & it's <0.01%. Business Insider has the fatality rate at 17.4%. That could indicate the US health system being better able to cope than other countries maybe.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/estimates/April_October_17.htm

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GKhan's picture

So in reading wikipedia in regards to the initial H1N1 outbreak, it apprently started in Mexico. As well, was 18K confirmed deaths (related to the initial outbreak). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
 

The 284K deaths is a mathematical forecast. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22738893-estimated-global-mortality-associated-with-the-first-12-months-of-2009-pandemic-influenza-a-h1n1-virus-circulation-a-modelling-study/

They basically determine how many people died with respistory infections compared to H1N1 for developed countries then do the same math on undeveloped countries with a multiplier for that countries lower treatment options.

So first, 18K-ish is the confirmed deaths, 284K is a mathemtical estimate.

So, we should apply that forecast for other outbreaks as well.

 

BUT

 

I beleive a critical point is, any new missunderstood virus should be treated with kid gloves until it is contained. As we are seeing with China, an ounce of prevention could have been worth 10% of your stockmarket. And who know how far it will go, February and maybe March may be totally gone.

 

Also, the ability for something to spread from the US might just be a lot less likely due to better medicial facilities, more experienced staff, less people, less density. As well as less giant holiday basically being the best way to spread a virus.

 

What would the US done if H1N1 broke out 3 weeks before Thanksgiving?

 

Anyway, I am not saying the US could've done better but that chart reads a little fake newsy to me.

 

 

 

 

 

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danmanjones's picture

Yeah, it's Busines Insider. They're not known for accurate journalism.

Good analysis.

 

I disagree about it starting in Mexico, Wikipedia says this but also shows there are multiple theories about where it started. It's kind of propaganda really. A pandemic starting in your country is bad for your brand, trust, economy, etc. Tha't's kinda the point I've been making, the media is overplaying this coronavirus IMO & very much branding China with it, not to mention the scare-mongering etc.

 

The markets seem to have slid on the back of the int'l travel bans so will likely bounce back once those are lifted. Could be April, maybe later.

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Ziggy's picture

I... I don't even know what they're eating..

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Maxpower's picture

Just some good 'ol chicken of the cave. Or chicken of the rail yard, maybe?

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robbby1234's picture

Fap

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lawngnome's picture
Raining Blood's picture

watch border patrol, the asian always trying to be sneaky

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