...back on 19th of april. interesting what has happened since then.
3
Average: 3(3 votes)
Comments
danmanjones (Old Spike)
I don't buy into that "it's all about the petrodollar" theory. This April announcement was basically just a clerical adjustment. The May 12 JCPO deadline was already set. Iran switched off the petrodollar in 2007 [link] but the neocon war drums had already stated beating for regime change back then, just as they were already beating before April this year.
Qaddafi did a bunch of things that flew in the face of 'Western' hegemony in his region. He was providing water & loans to other African states & was aiming to lift them out of the poverty they're in. It would have been great for everyone but not for plutocrats who prefer weak states that are more easily controlled.
+1
0
-1
Vote comment up/down
sato (Old Spike)
nope, read the info in your link carefully. they were taking payments for petroleum products in non-dollar currencies, not crude oil, which has always been traded in US dollars. 80% of iran's exports are crude oil, and the refined products sold in non-dollar currencies only make up a small part of the remaining 20%.
not saying that means it is all about the petrodollar, just for clarification. a lot of events happening at the same time is too coincidental for it not to have a lot to do with the petrodollar though.
+1
0
-1
Vote comment up/down
danmanjones (Old Spike)
You're right, good catch.
I still dismiss petro-dollar as a major factor for toppling Iraq or Iran. It's more of a coincidence in their case I think. There's just too much evidence of who wrote the policy & pushed the US into Iraq.
+1
0
-1
Vote comment up/down
sato (Old Spike)
yeah although the evidence for the petrodollar being part of the reason is both compelling and makes a lot of sense. the 2 largest holders of american bonds are china and japan, and they are the world's top and 4th largest oil importers (the usa is 2nd and india 3rd). america has only been able to borrow as much as it has thanks to the need for dollars.
i don't really see how china is a challenge? of course they'd love to be able to buy in renminbi but first you need someone willing to accept them in exchange for oil, and so far there isn't anybody, and there won't be until china has something other countries want to buy with it. this might be why china is working so hard in building up africa, maybe they're trying to create customers for their military hardware, which will create a need for renminbi and then a bourse which will accept it since they will be then able to sell that currency on.
+1
0
-1
Vote comment up/down
danmanjones (Old Spike)
the evidence for the petrodollar being part of the reason is both compelling and makes a lot of sense
True. It's not something that can be easily proven though, unfortunately. We just have circumstantial evidence. Iraq war started in 1990. It continued under Clinton via sanctions & bombing & then complete regime change under Bush. It didn't start in 2003 as a lot of people seem to think.
Sorry I edited out the China part but anyway...
Good point about Africa. I assumed they're just interested in harvesting the resources but maybe your idea of building up a market in Africa for trading with is part of the strategy.
I'd have to study economics more to give a good answer as to why China is a challenge. The fundamentals are that China is the 'factory of the world', have a strong economy with good growth, and they're building their military. IMO power fundamentally comes from your economy. The military is just an expression of economic power & a way to tell countries to avoid bullying. So in a way, with China's military spending going up the clock is ticking on US dominence.
The USD as global reserve currency has been abused and so isn't sustainable. I'd guess that lots of countries know this but are stuck in the system. China is leading the way out of the system because they're the only country that can. The system is a bit of a house of cards (which enforces the 1st point about making an example of Qaddafi & maybe Saddam)... if a new reserve currency gains traction, it could trigger a selloff which can kill the USD & in turn the global economy. So anything that happens needs to happen very slowly. Sure China isn't a direct challenge right now but in the long game it's definitely a challenge. They've been doing it for a decade already & it seems to be gaining steam.
https://www.google.com/search?q=petro-yuan
+1
0
-1
Vote comment up/down
PizzaBoi (Old Spike)
Uh oh, they're about to get an American-sized dose of freedom. Liberate their oil while we're at it too.
Comments
(Old Spike)
I don't buy into that "it's all about the petrodollar" theory. This April announcement was basically just a clerical adjustment. The May 12 JCPO deadline was already set. Iran switched off the petrodollar in 2007 [link] but the neocon war drums had already stated beating for regime change back then, just as they were already beating before April this year.
Qaddafi did a bunch of things that flew in the face of 'Western' hegemony in his region. He was providing water & loans to other African states & was aiming to lift them out of the poverty they're in. It would have been great for everyone but not for plutocrats who prefer weak states that are more easily controlled.
(Old Spike)
nope, read the info in your link carefully. they were taking payments for petroleum products in non-dollar currencies, not crude oil, which has always been traded in US dollars. 80% of iran's exports are crude oil, and the refined products sold in non-dollar currencies only make up a small part of the remaining 20%.
not saying that means it is all about the petrodollar, just for clarification. a lot of events happening at the same time is too coincidental for it not to have a lot to do with the petrodollar though.
(Old Spike)
You're right, good catch.
I still dismiss petro-dollar as a major factor for toppling Iraq or Iran. It's more of a coincidence in their case I think. There's just too much evidence of who wrote the policy & pushed the US into Iraq.
(Old Spike)
yeah although the evidence for the petrodollar being part of the reason is both compelling and makes a lot of sense. the 2 largest holders of american bonds are china and japan, and they are the world's top and 4th largest oil importers (the usa is 2nd and india 3rd). america has only been able to borrow as much as it has thanks to the need for dollars.
i don't really see how china is a challenge? of course they'd love to be able to buy in renminbi but first you need someone willing to accept them in exchange for oil, and so far there isn't anybody, and there won't be until china has something other countries want to buy with it. this might be why china is working so hard in building up africa, maybe they're trying to create customers for their military hardware, which will create a need for renminbi and then a bourse which will accept it since they will be then able to sell that currency on.
(Old Spike)
the evidence for the petrodollar being part of the reason is both compelling and makes a lot of sense
True. It's not something that can be easily proven though, unfortunately. We just have circumstantial evidence. Iraq war started in 1990. It continued under Clinton via sanctions & bombing & then complete regime change under Bush. It didn't start in 2003 as a lot of people seem to think.
Sorry I edited out the China part but anyway...
Good point about Africa. I assumed they're just interested in harvesting the resources but maybe your idea of building up a market in Africa for trading with is part of the strategy.
I'd have to study economics more to give a good answer as to why China is a challenge. The fundamentals are that China is the 'factory of the world', have a strong economy with good growth, and they're building their military. IMO power fundamentally comes from your economy. The military is just an expression of economic power & a way to tell countries to avoid bullying. So in a way, with China's military spending going up the clock is ticking on US dominence.
The USD as global reserve currency has been abused and so isn't sustainable. I'd guess that lots of countries know this but are stuck in the system. China is leading the way out of the system because they're the only country that can. The system is a bit of a house of cards (which enforces the 1st point about making an example of Qaddafi & maybe Saddam)... if a new reserve currency gains traction, it could trigger a selloff which can kill the USD & in turn the global economy. So anything that happens needs to happen very slowly. Sure China isn't a direct challenge right now but in the long game it's definitely a challenge. They've been doing it for a decade already & it seems to be gaining steam.
https://www.google.com/search?q=petro-yuan
(Old Spike)
Uh oh, they're about to get an American-sized dose of freedom. Liberate their oil while we're at it too.