Coronavirus Update

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stokkebye's picture

The biggest difference is the way it spreads, sars spreads by droplets that you have to touch, this virus spreads by the fucking air! I remember them being concerned that if sars ever mutitated to become airborne then we'd be fucked, well here it is. This can and will spread to much more people then sars ever could have and becuase of that you're talking billions of people infected and and with %2 death rate, millions of people dying. You know what scares me is that the media is NOT really talking about this the way did with the other non-threats. IT was 24 hour non-stop talkign about the new "deadliest" virus, but yet here we are with a real deadly virus and not a peep. I think the world should be quarantining China and shutting down our borders world wide.

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danmanjones's picture

The WHO upgraded the global alert level a couple of days ago but still hasn't announced it as a global health emergency/pandemic. They're sending in more people to interface with the Chinese health authorities. I think it's going to peak in the next week or 2 & then the rate of detection will fall off. Not sure what happens after that.

 

I don't know if airborne spreading has been confirmed, I've heard conflicting stories about that. It spreads from touch & can live outside the body for days, maybe a week or more on textured surfaces like carpet.

 

To quarantine China you just have to disallow flights from there into your country. North Korea & Mongolia are the only countries who've closed the border with China so far afaik. DPRK did it on day 1 (20th Jan). A bunch of countries have requested their citizens be allowed to leave Wuhan & are awaiting Chinese approval: Germany, United States, Japan (granted), India, UK & Australia.

 

 

Part of me thinks just let it spread. It's just nature & will make us stronger. The longer we go on needing vaccines to save us the more of a mess we make. It's mostly just killing weak people with a history of chronic pulmonary disease. I know it sounds cold but the alternative is to inject ourselves for eternity with yet another bunch of drugs, who knows what the longterm effects of those will be.

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stokkebye's picture

Yeah me thinks my daughter would like to keep seeing her grandparents. Not everyone will have to inject themselves, just like the flu shots alot of people get nowadays it keeps the virus down becuase of herd protections. Plus that could take months to get a vaccine, if they can.

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danmanjones's picture

Earliest etimate for a vaccine ready for distribution that I've seen is 12 months. It'll be a PR coup for whoever develops it. God I hope Hong Kong doesn't win the race haha.

 

For scale:
Regular flu kills 650k people worldwide each year.

During the Swine Flu epidemic, roughly 1b people caught it & 500k died.

2019-nCoV may wipe out around 300-1000 people if containment works.

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danmanjones's picture

Best-case scenario it'll die out after about 2 months

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danmanjones's picture

>> Full WHO press conference

They say the cooperation, efficiency & transparency of the Chinese since Jan 1st is unprecedented & will send another team there in part to learn from how China's handled this epidemic.

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danmanjones's picture

Like SARS virus, 2019-nCoV virus will only bind to human ACE2 receptor in order to be infected. Several reports from the Tongji Medical College, just published by Cold Spring Laboratories, show that the expression of ACE2 in Asian male samples is five times that of white / African (2.50% vs. 0.47% of all cells)! This means that the epidemic in Europe and the United States may not pose a danger. Note that this report has not been peer reviewed.

>> https://twitter.com/DadingLi/status/1222266298920570882

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monkeymania's picture

Foolproof protection from the Wuhan coronavirus has been discovered in China and exported.

 

Scenes from Vancouver airport:

 

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