So apparently hour long presentations on defence investment weren't dry enough, so I'm dusting
off the Economics degree (strongly recommended when pairing with military or strategic studies)
to ask the question of what the economic situation may be if this war drags on.
Some are insisting sanctions are achieving nothing, and that Russia is well placed to outlast
Ukraine. Others are convinced that Russia's war will grind to a halt under the weight of these
sanctions.
In this video, I look at some of the tactics Russia has been using to minimise the impact of
sanctions, as well as the basic economic disparities between Russia and the Western powers
backing Ukraine. Suffice to say, Russia is economically outmatched, but it has a variety of tools and
strengths to leverage, including energy exports and a defence sector that has spent years moving
towards self-reliance.
this guy has a series on the current conflict with critical analysis of the situation on various subjects.
if you're into this kind of thing it's super interesting stuff.
Comments
(Site Administrator)
I've been keeping an eye on it & haven't watched the video but as usual wanna give my 2c...
Russian central bank boss gave her analysis the other day & various other Russian economists have given their takes. The consensus is that no Russia is not crippled (look at the ruble) but that there are disruptions caused by so many companies leaving that will take betwen 6-24 months to resolve, depending who you ask.
There is a bit of an issue with currency - Russia just posted a record surplus but there's limitations on what they can do with it. Having boatloads of rubles & rmb is great but you gotta be able to spend it. Not too much of a worry once things are reconfigured with different channels etc afaik.
Mainly it's the domestic economy that's gonna take some adjusting. RCB is using the excess cash to flood the domestic economy & can do this as long as commodity prices are high. They show no signs of dropping.
Meanwhile Ukraine was has been a basket case economy for years & can only survive with aid from outside. With the global economic slowdown it seems only a matter of time before politics get in the way of this. I give it 3-6 months before shoveling money into Kyiv (9th most corrupt regime in the world) comes at too high of a political cost for NATOstan to sustain.
Seems unlikely to me that serious fighting will last another 6 months given the rate at which Russia is deleting Ukraine military capabilities. As Russia administers these new regions they'll need economic boosting, something Russia can spend their excess cash on. They're already converting cities there to rubles. I don't think they intend to give that southern region back any time soon.
skipped thru the video, watching 20-30 mins worth. The guy gets a bunch of stuff wrong & overall is kind of western-biased. Russian officials & economists are pretty straight up with how things are going, it's better to listen to what they have to say imo. The IMF has projected about a 9% contraction for Russian economy in 2022. That's huge of course but they'll manage. It's not going to get in the way of the conflict in Ukraine. They have everything they need to keep fighitng indefinitely I'd say.
"what if Kyiv says no (to negotations)" - this is pretty much expected considering it's a NATO proxy regime with a cokehead comedian president whose failed to act in good faith towards Russia for years but you'll see in time what kind of leverage Russia will get, it'll be mainly obtained on the battlefield I'd say.
(sounds retarded)
Did you even watch the fucking video before adding your "$0.02" :) ? FFS! Oh, you just "skipped around a bit".
(Long Spike)
you could post her words. https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=12843
heres and excerpt
"Indeed, our economy is entering a challenging period of structural shifts associated with the sanctions. In the first place, the sanctions have affected the financial market, but now they will start to impact the real economy increasingly more significantly. The main problems will be associated not so much with the sanctions against financial institutions, but rather with the restrictions on imports and logistics in foreign trade and, further on, with possible restrictions on Russian exports.
You certainly know that manufacturing in the modern world is organised so that almost any product has a greater or lesser portion of imported components. This is the way of manufacturing of a large number of products. Even if such portion is small in total output, an enterprise may be critically dependent on a certain part or component. By the way, we could see this during the coronavirus pandemic when a deficit of a limited number of components caused adverse consequences in a wide range of sectors.
Of course, due to the restrictions on imports and logistics, Russian manufacturers will have to search new partners and new logistics routes to deliver their products and to switch to domestic components. Besides, the situation in exports is similar as companies will also have to search new partners and logistics alternatives. We are all very well aware that this will take a certain time. Currently, this problem might be not as acute because the economy still has inventories, but we can see that the sanctions are being tightened almost every day, including the restrictions on Russian goods transportation and the operation of Russian carriers. However, the period when the economy can get along with stocks is limited. Already in the second quarter — the beginning of the third quarter, we will actively enter a period of structural transformation and the search for new business models for many enterprises. As the Central Bank, we perfectly understand that this period might be accompanied with a surge in prices for individual products. Hence, inflation will exceed the target. Therefore, it is essential to comprehend that such a rise in inflation above the target will be largely caused not by high demand, but directly by supply-side restrictions, that is, low supply. This is why we will not try to lower inflation at any cost, as this would hinder the adjustment of businesses for which the recovery of supplies of required imported components is more complicated and expensive, and this will inevitably affect prices for end products. However, we need to go through this period of adaptation by all means. Nonetheless, we do understand that we must prevent uncontrollable inflation that would devalue households’ savings and incomes. To this end, we will pursue a monetary policy that will return inflation to the target within a reasonable foreseeable period, but not too sharply — we expect to bring inflation back to approximately 4% in 2024."
(Site Administrator)
sounds a lot like what I said within 2-3 sentences I'd say, I also included what other economists in Russia have been saying as part of my little rant. You're free to disagree & you can make another bold prediction if you like. You might guess right this time & in a wierd way cancel out the last one you made when you were saying the ruble is about to crash. Fingers crossed, eh charlatan9000?
(Long Spike)
you didn't mention inflation once and what you said is said under the pretext of you not knowing anything about economics. so why would you give your waterdown and misinformed perspecting on something you don't understand instead of giving people the words she said which explains the situation better? they're not going to be controlling inflation going into an economic pitfall. the cost of sugars 70% higher right now and russia's not going to try and do anything for 2 years. its going to take 2 years or more for them to change around manufactoring. they have to make things so they can make things to make things
(Site Administrator)
"what you said is said under the pretext of you not knowing anything about economics"
according to who? to you?
"russia's not going to try and do anything for 2 years"
lmao. way to interpret information. Holy shit. No wonder you predicted that it was about to crash & burn.
"they're not going to be controlling inflation going into an economic pitfall"
lol. they already have. try to keep up.
"its going to take 2 years or more for them to change around manufactoring"
is this another famous charalatan9000 prediction or are you repeating something you read somewhere - if so where?
(Long Spike)
according to you " tph economics is hard & not my strong suit"
it is crashing. russian bank lady says problems are coming. sanctions aren't going anywhere. more are coming. russia defaulted on a loan on top that. a russian owned bank went bankrupt 2 days ago. chinese unionpay has potentialy stopped working with russian banks
it could take you 6 month to design a mold for something. another 6 makes to make the mold. russias going from being a place that made a part of something to having to make all of it. hence. russia's got to make machines that make stuff that makes stuff
(Long Spike)
missed your 3rd paragraph. this is what the russian lady said "This is why we will not try to lower inflation at any cost". i've been telling you that they've been trying to stabilize. i've explained to you how they do it. but she says their not going to be doing it going into this new phase. try to keep up
(Site Administrator)
they've already lowered the key interest rate from 20.5 to iirc 17.5 percent
seems they have inflation under control, what she said was that they "must prevent uncontrollable inflation" & they plan to have it at 4% in 2024
"economics is hard & not my strong suit"
this is called an acknowledgement of how difficult economics is, as well as some self-awareness - something you obv lack.
"what you said is said under the pretext of you not knowing anything about economics"
this is called being a bullshit artist who's still salty because he fucked up so badly by predicting runaway inflation & a ruble collapse on 23 March.
https://www.spikednation.com/videos/ukranian-granny-poisons-soldiers#comment-70283
why do you think I'm interested in your hot takes on inflation in Russia when you've already been caught making dumb predictions about it. Now you wanna double down ... but last time when pressed you wouldn't give any kind of specifics. I couldn't be less interested in your reddit-inspired takes on this topic. I hear a Chinese person just recorded themselves picking their nose, you better rush out to grab the youtube of that when it lands, that's more up your ally.
(Long Spike)
this isn't a war, its a special military operation. countries have reserves. like the lady said a few days ago "the period during which the economy can live on reserves is finite"
got to keep up man. you're trailing behind
(Site Administrator)
what reserves was she talking about smart guy?
(Long Spike)
economic lessons were in march, you didn't listen
i said this 24 days ago "those sanctions aren't going anywhere. now, you might wake up tomorow and be like. "russian economy hasn't collapsed" but its collapsing. this isn't ideology, this is fact"
i tell you its collapsing, you see signs of it, head of the russian bank says its collapsing but you want a specific date or its not happening
(Site Administrator)
"head of the russian bank says its collapsing"
when proven wrong just lie. neat trick, charlatan9000
(Long Spike)
whats the opposite of expanding?
(Site Administrator)
not what you predicted, take the L & walk away
(Long Spike)
its collapsing, any word you want to use to describe its current state and what the lady said is going to be transforming into is going to be a synonym for collapsing. but, we all have reason as to why we say what we say and yours is out of fear of being persecuted as an enemy of the state
(Site Administrator)
play with words all you like, refusing to admit you got it wrong makes no difference
(Long Spike)
posting a photo of that shouldnt mean as much to you after i've explained to you how a country can manipulated its exchange rate and a few days after the lady from the russian bank says bad times are coming. doubling down on your ignorance now isn't going to do you any good in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. seriously, the worse russia's economy does, the worse i'm going to be at reminding you about how i told you. you're not going to want to hear about it anymore but you will, probably every day. for fun
what did i say on march 23rd cause that photo of a comment is from march 20(me)/21(you)
(Site Administrator)
"the russians and ruble is like if you pause it right here"
- charlatan9000, 23 March, 2022
(Long Spike)
Dan:
*pic of the exchange rate*
"I see the ruble seems to be hanging in there"
Sun, 2022-03-20
Sal9000 but number one in your hearts:
"the russians and ruble is like if you pause it right here"
*pic of mario falling*
you're technically stilling hanging on
Sun, 2022-03-20
you fell so far behind you're getting lapped, you're having conversations with me in your mind
(Site Administrator)
+ 40% since you announced it was about to fall thru the floor, charlatan9000
you're denial is astounding.
(dumb cunt)
Careful. Pointing out his hypocricy and stupidy too much may lead to him having another meltdown.
(Long Spike)
might be in the middle of one, click user by points
(Site Administrator)
ad hom, the ultimate tap out
(dumb cunt)
If you think that a state currency which is being artificially propped up and manipulated is the sole indicator of said states economic health, then you are spectacularly naive and misinformed. Of course we knew that already though.
(Site Administrator)
"the russians and ruble is like if you pause it right here"
- charlatan9000, 23 March, 2022
(sounds retarded)
(sounds retarded)
(dumb cunt)
"The guy gets a bunch of stuff wrong" What "stuff" and how is it wrong?? LOL You are fond of pointing out 'stuff' being wrong without providing any supporting argument countering the 'stuff'. STUFF!
(sounds retarded)
Do you think he tries to high five himself in the mirror and fucks it up smacking himself somehow and knocking over the mirror?
(sounds retarded)
Just finished the video, very nice. Debunks almost all the crap Littlemanjones puts up. LOL. Fucking retard.
(dumb cunt)
The dirty little secret (now exposed) about russia, is that it is a complete and total kleptocracy.
"Kleptocracy (from Greek "thief", kléptō, "I steal", and -κρατία -kratía from κράτος krátos, "power, rule") is a government whose corrupt leaders (kleptocrats) use political powerto appropriate the wealth of the people and land they govern, typically by embezzling or misappropriating government funds at the expense of the wider population"
There is a good vid about this somewhere. I will see if I can find it
(Site Administrator)
shit bro, i just relized you're still a short spike.
let me fix that real quick.
(dumb cunt)
Ha! Thanks. I finally made it to 'old' status!
(Site Administrator)
11 years dude. old spike is suposed to kick in after 10.
(Old Spike)
I have a similar issue. Not that I comment much.
(Site Administrator)
(dumb cunt)
is the site broken again?
(Site Administrator)
i had my eye on it. shot an email at merlock and he fixed it up good so many thanks to him!
(Long Spike)
User by points page went out again yesterday, so did the portion of the adding video submission where you can see the archived videos that have been posted. any chance you could find out why it happened?
(Site Administrator)
sure, i'll ask about it. perhaps he can do something to stop it happening again.
(Long Spike)
hate to be bother but it went out again today. sometime around 8-10am new zealand time