This is just one example of why any fear surrounding Chinese military capabilities is just media hype.
(2 votes)
Why is the Chinese Military so Corrupt?
This is just one example of why any fear surrounding Chinese military capabilities is just media hype.
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(Site Administrator)
Decent brief video on the history of corruption in the PLA but she's mainly talking about the Jiang era.
In the 1990s & early 2000s the PLA procurement sector was extremely corrupt but it's gotten quite a lot better.
Xi runs a pretty tight ship & became head of the central military commission in 2013 & has made a bunch of moves to eliminate corruption in PLA. He's still gotta keep the generals happy so can only push so hard before running into difficulty & it's an ongoing struggle.
4/5 for covering the history of PLA corruption, even if it's a bit light on recent developments.
Her blurb at the end gave away her political agenda & makes her opinion on things not very credible but I would agree that a PLA-CPC split is a faultline that could cause serious problems there. It's not gonna happen under Xi IMO but still is something to keep an eye on.
The idea that "Chinese military capabilities is just media hype" is silly IMO although I don't know what media you're refering to. PLA navy holds the upper hand within the first island chain & their A2AD against the world's most powerful navy (US) is expanding. The idea of a large land war in China is silly so it's mostly the PLAN you wanna keep an eye on. They're building their 4th aircraft carrier that appears to be on par with the Ford class (best one in US navy). Blue water navy isn't their priority right now though I don't think, they want regional military hegemony since the US under Obama launched their "pivot to Asia" (China containment). Since then China's been out-building the US in terms of warships & they have homeground advantage there - the widest array of land-based missiles in the world, most of which can be deployed against a navy on their doorstep.
To give better idea, in the map below the yellow part is "no go" area for US warships during hot war w/ PRC, the orange & red part are "danger zone" for both navies & beyond that it's "no go" for PLAN.
(Old Spike)
^ Has a casual, passing interest in the CCP - an objective guy just calling it as he sees it.
(Site Administrator)
Not "CCP", China, and more than a passing interest I'd say. Their civilization is deep & it takes quite a lot of effort just to understand their 20th-21st century history - the main part I take interest in so far. The inner workings of the CPC is something I don't put a lot of effort into, it's not that interesting or important to me, it's also difficult to get information on unless you have an inside track. One thing I find funny is that an average taxi driver in Beijing knows more about how China works than 95% of the US foreign policy establishment. Guys like you know less than nothing. Your head's full of misinformation & to begin learning about the place you'd need to forget what you think you know, something you'd be neither willing nor capable of doing.
(Short Spike)
(Old Spike)
"Not "CCP", China, and more than a passing interest I'd say."
If that were true you would want to talk about Taiwan and you would be respectful towards that country and its people.
(Long Spike)
(dumb cunt)
Corruption is still rampant in the PLA. There are multiple recent indicators and sources citing this specifically, such as this article today in the SCMP. Xi is focused on anti-corruption as both a campaign narrative to bolster his position, but also genuinely playing 'whack-a-mole' against a system so endemic to the PLA that some military strategists surmise that is may be the only thing keeping some officers from breaking ranks or defecting. And yes, defections do occur.
On the topic of their military capabilities, I am sorry, but you seem misinformed or just not well read up on this. Just lke China's covid numbers and their economic numbers, their military capabilities are widely exaggerated. Part of that may be born out a US crafted narrative having us all believe that China is the new bogeyman, but I won't digress on that here.
However, as you say, China can and is building warships, but important to note that quantity ≠ quality, and they are, by some estimates 20+ years behind the US and western nations in core military technologies. Those aircraft carriers you mention, is actually just one, barely operable carrier, which is apparently constantly in port for repairs. They are building more, but can't get one operating normally. Don't forget that China has no replenishment at sea (UNREP) capabilities but they do, in fact, want a blue water navy and have openly stated so on muliple occasions. Taiwan factors hugely into that, as one key factor pushing their reunification agenda is the need to finally have deep water ports. One needs only to go on google earth and look at the sea bed topography around China to notice that they are surrounded by shallow waters at every major port, civilian or military. Why does this matter? It matters because they can't launch a single submarine, let alone any military vessel, without satellites, sosus arrays, and every other tracking instrument knowing the moment they do it. They desperately need access to the deep wates to the east of Taiwan as well as in the south china sea so that they can continue to build out their blue water navy and project their power.
As mentioned, that isn't their only motiviation for reunification, only one of the largest factors. Don't even get me started on how semiconductors and TSMC specifically complicate things even more..
Disclosure: I am based in Asia and was formerly employed somewhere in the military industrial complex.
(Site Administrator)
I think we agree on the hype part, I wrote the comment below this one before reading yours.
The acc I mentioned that they're building is the Type 004 - it has the same fundamental tech of the Ford class & similar in size, just a bit smaller with 3 launching strips instead of 4. The Type 003 will be 'ready' in a few years, the 004 in late 2020s most probably, with nuclear propulsion & EM launch capability.
Reportedly they might be putting EM launchers on the Type 003 also but I'm not really a military nerd & don't keep a close eye on this stuff, more just the big picture stuff.
I think we disagree a little on the blue water navy part - they are building one kinda & do intend on having one eventually but at this point they're securing the region, not fixated on wandering off or "projecting power" globally IMO. After SCS I figure the Malacca Strait & over to Strait of Hormuz would be their next key concern. Beyond that I doubt they intend to do anything like "project power" globally like the US does. They have interests in Africa that they don't want upset but I don't see them using hard power to get that done. It's a waste & a trap to rely too heavily on military power. Possibly a small presence on Africa's West Coast some day but that's a way out IMO.
I think it's always good to look at maps to get clear idea so here goes...
Step 1 - secure the homeland, negate US ability to embargo at coastline
Step 2 - the 2 key chokepoints seen below, for the time being are vulnerabilities ... even though energy land routes are being worked on, they're not online yet & they're only a backup. The idea of an 8 nation alliance boxing them in within the SCS from around the Strait of Malacca would I assume be their next concern.
You can kinda see their intended security zone from the bases they're setting up & they don't make a secret out of their focus on the "maritime silk road" although work on that is going slower than the land-based routes. I think they intend to be able to defend their trade route to Africa & that'll be about it but things can change.
They had a 3rd naval exercise with Russia & Iran last week & it was focused on the Gulf of Oman. China tends to rely on local partners for security a lot & the confrontation with the US can be managed to a level that they're capable of dealing with. As they grow they could get more froggy but I don't think they intend to be world police with 20 nuclear carriers to "win" a hot war in the middle of Pacific or whatever.
Also, if you think they're desparately seeking to take Taiwan you need to explain why they're not going ham on amphibious assault ships. They're building loads of destroyers instead - good for overwhelming an enemy close to their shores, no?
for anyone reading this who wants to see what Pentagon thinks - here's their 2021 report to Congress on China's military capabilities - IMO they overhype China's capabilities & intentions.
Here's a more no-nonsense report on their commissioned navy vessels in 2021.
The destroyers have a range of about 5,000 miles. Hainan to Gwadar is about 3,000 miles.
(dumb cunt)
Lots to unpack in your comments here Dan, but alas I don't have as much time as I would prefer to engage in these discussions, even though I have a strong interest in this area. Let me adress this one; "you need to explain why they're not going ham on amphibious assault ships. They're building loads of destroyers instead". The short answer is that Aegis-type destroyers are the most versatile naval vessel in the world right now and also the most future-proof. If you are unfamiliary, “aegis-type” is made in reference to the general configuration of various worldwide surface combatants that boast a fixed face or fast refresh rate phased array radar system, with vertical launch systems with at least a medium- to long-range anti-air warfare capability, and a contemporary combat management system.
They are also the ideal vehicle to operate a naval blockade. One tactic that the CCP is likely to take in the future with regard to Taiwan, is a blockade of critical harbours. There is much written by analysts about this particular strategy, but if the PLAN (peoples liberation army navy) were to do this, they would need double the destroyers they have now, which is part of a leading theory on why they are producing at this current pace.
With regard to the 'choke points', I have read a lot about this one and it is a complicated topic. My lazy response here is that China is VERY worried about those choke points and in particular the threat the AUKUS and Quad alliances could present in controlling the regions seaways. Interesting to note that the US is likely to resurect their 1st fleet and potentially basing it in Darwin and/or Singapore. Interesting times...
(Site Administrator)
> China is VERY worried about those choke points
yeah, agreed.
QUAD is a joke & AUKUS is a nuclear proliferation deal. Doesn't matter really what you wanna call it, the plan of the US-led bloc is obvious & a lot is driven from the MIC/NatSec goons for their self-serving interests. Strategically this China containment tactic is a hail mary & my advice to the yanks would be to cut their losses & ride this wave of China's re-emergence as a global power. They've been in this imperial game for thousands of years & it's gonna be one-way traffic.
The only leverage the yanks have is threatening to suicide the planet. They think way too highly of their own skills & are already suffering heavy blows within just 5 years of really putting China in their crosshairs. Ultimately it'll be economic gravity which determines things & decoupling from the soon-to-be largest economy is self-defeating.
That's my take on the big big picture stuff. Military hardware is little bit whatever. China's output is way more efficient than that of the US MIC so in the long term they're looking good. This war stuff is becoming too costly for the real national interest of the US & IMO they'd be much better off pulling back with what prestige & financial+tech+diplomatic control they still have. Trying to control high tech isn't gonna work beyond this decade.
sorry my reply wandered off so much but these things are all related. In pure military terms, neither China nor US has the judgement that a war between them is in their interest. It's obvious to everyone now that China's not intimidated & is gonna deal with whatever is thrown at them. US isn't even interested in threatening to kick Russia out of SWIFT because it would accelerate their loss of US financial control in global economy. China's far too coupled in the global economy to try some embargo stunt. Nobody wants it. UK & USA don't speak for the world. The outcome of this power struggle is already determined IMO - economic gravity will win out. If Russia had just a microgram of trust in the UK/US they could be pulled over & maybe then China would be on the back foot but the geniuses in Washington DC are targeting them both. It's a failed strategy & I don't think US has the ability to change things up anytime soon. Too much money in politics & war (IE corruption, bringing this back to the topic of the thread).
(Site Administrator)
"any fear surrounding Chinese military capabilities is just media hype"
I do agree with this but not because China's military is weak. Media hype is fear-porn for the public so they don't resist the NatSec establishment taking more power in the govt or to the massive military/security budgets. Think tanks are the conduits between security establishment & the media - ASPI is a classic example. Just look at where their money comes from.
China's military capabilities are over-hyped in Western media often, especially when the US DoD release a report, which consistently makes the PLA look stronger than they are & includes panicky spin.
It would be wrong to get it twisted though & think just because the media is over-hyping capabilities & talking absolute nonsense about China's intentions that their military is a push over or that they'd suffer a loss & just eat it.
(Site Administrator)
Going back to the corruption thing, yeah sure there's no doubt still some, probably quite a lot, but in the big scheme of things, IMO, their military industrial complex is far more efficient than that of the US. You might not call it corruption in the US but results are what matter. Some analysts I've read say that their $250 billion is about on par with the US' $750 billion in terms of what they're producing. Keeping the industry mostly nationalized is one of the reasons. A lot's said about how wasteful the F-35 is & some people disagree but it was a trillion bucks & they've had 4 crashes in the past 6 months & cost over $100 million a piece. That's a huge oof.
I don't think China's behind by 20 years as Timmy said because the key things like anti-air capabilities, satellite imaging, cruise missile tech etc are quite comparible to the most modern US systems, sometimes better because a lot of it's so new. US likely still has major advantages in cyber domain. The AI race ongoing & seems fairly close to me. US is in front for now & still has more $$ going into it but results are what matter in the end so we'll see.
I figure US has 10-15 years of residual dominance left where it can maniuplate the tech race before it's going to be an even playing field & then they'll be left in the dust & wishing they hadn't blown their wad trying to remain "numba wan". Cooperation with China would have be a far greater strategy for 21st C USA IMO but it's always been expansionist & their war machine has too much inertia.
(Long Spike)
Seriously, bro. Stop logging me out.
(Site Administrator)
we discussed this already, you gotta upgrade to premium
you got paypal?
srsly tho it's happening when u change IP I think. Happens to me when I switch device or wifi.
or it could be to do with browser session cookies, php session/cookie timeout length or even session files being garbage cleaned on the server. Fuck knows.
just click the login button & be happy this old horse still runs.
(Old Spike)
Some things also to consider with U.S. gigantic spending is black projects.
We know what they tell us, we know nothing about what they don't.
We haven't seen a MASSIVE conflict since WWII. Where top secret weapons (for the time) were deployed such as nukes.
A good portion of that spending propably goes into R&D, and since the beginning of the cold war in particular they have fetishized means of controlling the domestic population which I'm sure costs money.
We really won't know what everyone has until an apocalyptic war happens. Which I hope never does.
Another thing to consider is U.S. war gear is generally top of the line with a few exceptions. They focus largely on survivability of troops and good tech meant for smart soldiers.
Nutrition is excellent, training was until very recently near second to none. (Unless the latest published excercise results were bluffs. *shrugs*)
There have been rumors circulating for some time that they have satellite strike weapons / counter sattelite weapons and stealth camoflage for their special forces.
(dumb cunt)
Exactly. "We know what they tell us, we know nothing about what they don't." Truest statement in all these comments. Monsters lurk in the dark, and the US has many...
(Site Administrator)
US, Russia & China all have demonstrated the capability to down satellites. In a total war scenario this would be one of the first things that happens I'd say. Chances of reaching this scenario are slim to none but just as an aside, China just told US to stop meddling in Taiwan or be prepared to fight over it.
(dumb cunt)
Downing a satellite would be an act of war, but 'reversible attacks' happen on a daily basis apparently.
btw, is there a way that I can receive notifications for comment replies?
(Site Administrator)
I dunno what kind of notifications you want but all you can really do on this site is check the Recent content page
Re: weapons in space. Maybe US should talk to Russia & China about the space weapons ban?