North Korea stops Nuclear and ICBM Tests

danmanjones's picture

BREAKING NEWS: North Korea stops Nuclear and ICBM Tests (seen on South Korean TV)

  • North & South Korea will have a face-to-face meeting next Friday, April 27 for only the 3rd time since the end of their hot war in 1953.
  • The Koreas have setup a hotline between the leaders for the first time ever.
  • At the summit the Koreas are expected to discuss de-nuclearisation and a peace treaty.

https://www.ft.com/content/df5204a0-4482-11e8-803a-295c97e6fd0b

 

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Pantysoaker's picture

Removal of US Forces from the Peninsula, that's most likely been part of the deal. Though possibly a decade off, though China has time to wait for it.

 

We'll never know the whole story, and the official ones might not be lies but they skip over massively important details. Xi just appointed "Chairman of Everything", which means he's crushed several factions among the Chinese Communists. North Korea's leadership was kept afloat by a faction of the Chinese Military. The USA dropped nasty sanctions on a huge chunk of Chinese Banks, functionally removing several from the global financial markets.

Add in the very muted response from China about US Tariffs, and it's clear a bunch of deals have been cut along many different vectors. What we're seeing is the "show" for public consumption. The US-NK deal was done months ago. (Heads of State don't talk about meeting until the deal is already 90% done.) It helps that the NeoCons are out of power, so US Strategic Interests haven't been turned into expanding an empire.

Though do expect some sort of "development aid" package from the USA. Maybe just shipping food & fuel again. There's a lot of different avenues this can take.

 

The funny part is going to be watching for the hilarious double-faced opposition that crops up to an end to the issues on the Peninsula. We'll get a good idea what parties, factions & countries have been profiting from NK aggression for years.

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theblackswordsman's picture

I can't wait for the MSM to praise how the Koreans did this all by themselves.

 

Since it had nothing to do with the President threatening to bomb them back to the stone age, or the risky move of threatening a war of economic attrition with China.

 

Now lets get the fuck out of Syria and focus on America for the rest of the term.

 

Also since NK just teched up huge with a nuclear milestone. They probably want to focus on economy to get a military machine going again in the future.

 

I doubt they are throwing out the nukes they have and burning the blueprints.

 

 

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Pantysoaker's picture

It actually dawned on me that the USA might have helped tilt intra-Chinese political factions in a way that allowed Xi to fully establish himself in control of the Government. We lack information about internal Chinese moves, but the only way that happened would be the crushing of several other factions. What if the, likely, Military faction that kept the strings over North Korea was crushed in the last round of purges, and Xi, Moon & Kim all cut deals with Trump to end the charade?

Because there's a funny little thing that crops up when you try to run the strategic interests & thinking of North Korea: the nukes never made sense in a post-USSR world. "Nuclear Blackmail" isn't in NK's interests, but in the interests of many other groups. NK could have moved in some of the ways that China did, unless the story of control of North Korea has a lot more subtlety to it. Thus, if the factions pushing NK down the ICBM & Nuke path are suddenly removed, North Korea's strategic interests suddenly revert to normal and the first thing they'd do is trade the ICBMs & Nukes for money & access.

That's exactly what we're seeing play out in real time.

As for Heads of State meeting, that little factoid just comes from historical study. The times they haven't, the meetings have gone extremely poorly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_summit

A time when it went poorly, though modern technology has changed a lot of the way certain things play out. As we're getting more accurate information about events from 1970 to about 1990, they send people to "talk" quite a lot more now, as it's far easier. The noticeable, but under the radar, change with the Trump Administration is that huge chunks of communication is being done by high-level courier. The soon-to-be Secretary of State Pompeo made a bunch of trips as CIA Director, which is really odd. There's been a clear move away from any electronic communication for anything that's actually important. Trump's meeting with Xi at the Forbidden City is a lot more important, in hindsight, than we realize.

This doesn't change North Korea from being a repressive, totalitarian regime, but there's a difference between threatening to lob Nukes at LA & Cambodia. Almost everyone wins in North Korea becoming an uninteresting, poor country.

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danmanjones's picture

There are definitely parts moving in Asia. Japan are rolling out their first batches of marines since WWII.

 

Neocons are seeping back in. Iran needs to mind its p's & q's.

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theblackswordsman's picture

Sadly, that cant happen as long NK has it's leadership and military. NK wants reunifiaction under NK terms.

 

SK wants reunification under SK's terms or no reuniting at all.

 

Either side of option 2 are the only sane options.

 

EDIT. This post was in response to your first draft statement.

 

 

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danmanjones's picture

Oh... yeah sorry haha. I often re-edit my comment until I'm happy with it. It's a bad habit.

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theblackswordsman's picture

I think it's a good habit. Strive to clarify your message so that you present the specific points you desire to state.

 

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