Some piping HOT, right out of the oven, TAKES 4 U!

The above is an interesting 2019 interview with Alexey Arestovich, Ukrainian Presidential advisor, in which he discusses the 2014 Donbas conflict, what was coming next, (russian invasion) and how this ties to Putins overall long time strategy.

Very prescient to his comments are the many developments underway presently stemming from the Russian MOD briefing yesterday. I have distilled some of that into the following hotty hot takes:

Essentially we are reaching, as Russia themselves acknowledged yesterday, the new phase of the war, which is quite obviously a capitulation, seems to be a pivot to splitting Ukraine in two, with Russia pulling back to encircle and hold the Eastern areas. Putin, to his credit, has appeared to realize that he cannot achieve his original maximalist objectives of taking Ukraine and/or replacing its government with a puppet regime. Despite their statements now, this absolutely was his goal from the beginning of the conflict, part of the overarching strategy to restore a soviet like empire. However, the completely incompetent way in which the Russian Army (RA) have been prosecuting this war has made that objective an impossibility (if it were ever realistic). 

Now a month in, Putin is looking for a way to declare a quick victory and freeze the conflict. The way they are defining victory presently is taking all of Donbas (including Mariupol and the full land bridge to Crimea), potentially some of the south Ukraine, as well such as Kherson. In addition, they will define victory as the demilitarization of Ukraine, which they will claim they achieved by bombing much of their military-industrial infrastructure and destroying a lot of Ukrainian equipment. Even though the UA now has more military equipment in their arsenal than when the war began. Thanks to the kind donations of the RA (DOH!). They will also define victory as a 'denazification' of Ukraine, which they will likely proclaim once they have taken/destroyed Mariupol and the Azov battallion fighting there. The last piece of the puzzle would be to try to envelop the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region with a pincer maneuver from the south (after Mariupol is taken) and the north (from Izyum) and try to get a concession from Zelensky on neutrality (NATO/EU). However, it is not certain that Zelensky will agree to anything but a limited ceasefire, therefore Putin will likely have to settle for just Donbas plus some additional minor territories, as well as his demilitarization/denazification victory proclamations. 

The war will not end but will evolve into a semi-frozen conflict not unlike what we have seen in the region since 2014. Major military offensives will likely conclude soon (there is some evidence they want to proclaim victory by May 9th WW2 Victory Day holiday). But the trench warfare type of fighting with limited but regular engagements can go on for many years The West will also likely try to quickly rebuild Ukraine's military capability with a lot of weapons. And the sanctions will continue to destroy the Russian economy. Think sanctions won't / don't work? Guess again. China is absolutely terrified of the effect of increased sanctions and Iran is almost begging for the lifting of sanctions on them.

Strategically this whole debacle will still be a huge loss for Putin, even if he does try to present it as a victory. One cannot simply brush this big of a fuck-up under the rug. Even in his own country. This will undoubtely go down as one of the largest military humiliations in modern history...